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July corn closed down 2 cents and December corn was down 2 3/4 cents. July soybeans closed down 2 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 3/4 cent. July KC wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 1 3/4 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was up 5 1/4 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.40 at 106.0. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 204.93 points at 38,290.73. June gold is up $8.90 at $2,351.40, May silver is down $0.02 at $27.33 and May copper is up $0.0445. June crude oil is up $0.29 at $83.86, June ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0018, June RBOB gasoline is up $0.0131 and June natural gas is down $0.060.

For the week:

July corn closed up 7 cents and December corn was up 7 1/4 cents. July soybeans closed up 11 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 13 3/4 cents. July KC wheat closed up 71 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 55 1/2 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was up 51 cents.

December corn ended down 2 3/4 cents at $4.73 1/2 Friday but was up 7 1/4 cents on the week with potential problems in South America and mostly favorable demand news in the U.S. Brazil's safrinha crop is now in the dry season and is facing above-normal temperatures for the week ahead. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 20% of the corn crop has been harvested and 60% of it was rated fair to excellent. Wet conditions have slowed harvest progress, but the exchange kept it production estimate at 49.5 million metric tons (mmt) or 1.95 bb, down from USDA's estimate of 55.0 mmt.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Department reported a second week of lower ethanol production. Some maintenance may be taking place, but we also notice corn in Iowa may be more difficult to get lately with DTN's basis map showing several sites in Iowa with basis above the national average and several cash bids above the futures board. Thursday's weekly export sales report offered bullish support to prices with 51.2 million bushels (mb) of old-crop sales and 67.3 mb of corn shipped last week, giving corn exports a chance to exceed USDA's 2.100 bb export estimate for 2023-24.

Friday's radar shows rain falling in the western Corn Belt with heavier amounts in Missouri and Illinois, moving slowly eastward through Sunday. Some severe weather has already taken place and more is expected toward evening. Northern growing areas may see sub-freezing temperatures this weekend, but the forecast turns warmer in May, helpful for widespread planting.

Getting closer to a more active planting season in the U.S., the trend is sideways for December corn with resistance near the February high of $4.81. DTN's National Corn Index was priced at $4.26 Thursday evening, 15 cents below the May futures. The U.S. Commerce Department said the PCE inflation index increased from a 2.5% annual increase in February to 2.7% in March, slightly higher than expected, reported RTTNews.com. The U.S. Dollar Index responded higher to the news and is up 0.40 on Friday afternoon.

November soybeans ended down 3/4 cent at $11.74 3/4 Friday but were up 13 3/4 cents on the week. The final 10% or so of Brazil's soybean harvest is being held up by heavy rains in southern Brazil that are expected to continue next week. Argentina's harvest conditions are still wet and the forecast suggests another one to two inches of rain in the week ahead. Late Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 25% of soybeans are harvested, down from the five-year average of 48% for this time of year. The exchange kept its production estimate at 51.0 mmt or 1.87 bb, slightly above USDA's 50.0 mmt estimate.

U.S. soybean exports remain below USDA's estimated pace so far in 2023-24 but are close enough that USDA's 1.700 bb goal is still possible, depending on China's appetite in 2024. July soybeans on China's Dalian exchange were up 1.5% this week, ending at the U.S. equivalent of $14.30 a bushel. Improved soybean demand has also pulled the June FOB price of soybeans in Paranagua, Brazil to within 37 cents a bushel of the comparable price in New Orleans, an unusually narrow gap for this time of year.

Among soy products, July soybean meal ended the week up $1.50 at $344.70 and July bean oil was up 0.60 cent at 45.54 cents. Both prices have been held down by aggressive crush totals since October. However, based on July futures prices, the soybean crush incentive has been stable in 2024 and ended at $1.61 a bushel on Friday, still enticing for processors.

So far, planting in the U.S. has been limited to central and southern soybean states, but northern states may have seen some activity early this week. Rains this weekend will limit planting and northern areas have another shot of cold temperatures coming this weekend, but planting will likely pick up next week when warmer weather returns. Nearing the end of April, the trend in November soybeans remains sideways with resistance near $12.00. DTN's National Soybean Index was priced at $11.11 Thursday evening, 52 cents below the May futures.

July KC Wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents at $6.54 1/4 Friday, up 71 1/4 cents on the week. For KC wheat, it was the largest weekly gain for a July contract since Russia attacked Ukraine in early 2022. Also, July Chicago wheat was up 55 1/2 cents and July Minneapolis wheat was up 51 cents.

As described in Friday's Todd's Take (https://www.dtnpf.com/…), this week's higher closes in wheat started last Friday with news that government wheat stocks in India had fallen to 16-year lows and were enhanced by last weekend's frosts across northern Europe and ongoing dry weather concerns in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia. Having several bullish threats emerge almost simultaneously put the heat on specs that were holding a record number of short positions in KC wheat to run for cover and provided fuel for seven consecutive higher closes.

Once the short-covering ends, it is still early in the new season to know how world wheat production will go in 2024 and weather will remain the big wildcard. So far, western Europe continues to look excessively wet next week. The Black Sea region has chances for some rain. The Western Canadian Prairies are dry but have limited chances for precipitation next week. Friday's radar shows light precipitation in southern Alberta and southern Manitoba, but much more will be needed to help crops this coming season. Here in the U.S., Nebraska, Missouri and eastern Kansas received significant rains overnight, 2 to 4 inches in some areas. Much of the southwestern U.S. Plains remain dry but has better rain chances in the six- to 10-day forecast. Nearing the final days of April, the trends are up for the July contracts of all three U.S. wheats. DTN's National HRW index closed at $5.29 Thursday, near the lowest prices in over three years. DTN's National HRS index closed at $6.69.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ToddHultman1

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